Urgent: A Breaking Market Update
You need to know this breaking news about the housing market.
The job report was so good last week and Chairman Powell came out and said maybe we'd have to continue raising interest rates and I think everybody expects that home prices are going to continue decreasing, interest rates are going to continue increasing, and this real estate market is going to remain at a standstill.
People are confused regarding interest rates, regarding the future of home prices, regarding the volatility in the market itself today, with all of the changes in loan qualifications and home price adjustments that are occurring on a day-to-day basis. And on top of that, now the supply shortage is back we talked about that a while ago, back when inventory was down as low as 2,500. While the supply problem is here again, and with Powell's recent comments after the most recent fed meeting, perhaps the fears of the recession or the Fed's reactions to inflation are going to cause that recession to be deeper if it ever gets here, and that's going to create more uncertainty as we move into the second and third quarters of 2023.
So, what does all this mean and what's going on? The first thing that we're seeing in the market is that while year-over-year supply is increasing, it's up nearly 200% or has nearly tripled since this time last year. What we're seeing on a monthly basis is a completely different story. Actually, back in September, supply peaked at about 10,000 units and we thought, or I thought it could go up besides 15,000 or so. Supply hasn't kept increasing. Supply hasn't stayed the same. Supply is going down again. There were 10,000 units on the market in September and at the time of this report here in January of 2020 they're only 6,500 units.
We've lost 35% of the available inventory over the last 100 days. What happens when supply goes down? Well, simple economics say when supply tightens and there's still demand, it may be not as strong as it was, but still demand that tends to cost prices to go up.
The second thing that we're seeing going on right now is home price, which is related to home prices. Home prices are still falling in this most recent report, home prices dipped. The single-family residence price in Las Vegas dipped to 400 decrease since as far back as 2011 or through 2012. And then what's going to happen? Well, based on that shortage of supply and the high season, we expect that prices may start going back up as we work toward the end of the second quarter and into the third quarter. I mean, if home prices were at four 10 or four 20, maybe by the end of the year based on the supply shortage, we could see them up another five to 10%.
So if you're thinking about buying a house, now might be the right time. As we've moved into the January and February weeks we're seeing activity increase again and dramatically, almost doubled since the holiday time to the present time.
Get ready. So if you're thinking about real estate in 2023, wondering if you should sell, when you should sell what you should shouldn't do. We should probably get together. I'm offering 15 as much as 30 minutes of my time to just talk about a situation that you're facing or thinking about, and I'll give you what we know about the market.
We study the hell out of the market. I'll give you what we know about the market, lay it over your situation and see if we can't help you come up with some kind of solution. No pressure, no requirement that you hire us. We're just here. We know a lot about what's going on and we're here to share that information for anybody who knows it or who needs it.
If you're thinking about doing something or going to do something in 2023, then dang it! we should definitely talk. We know a lot and we're willing to help. Thanks for watching and have a great day!